Quote:
Originally Posted by Eagle Eye
From a consumers stand point look at it from a cost per mile
gas = $3.69/gallon
best fuel economy std. they are shooting for by 2012 is 35 mpg
35mpg times 20 gallons = 700 mile range
20 gallon fuel tank @ $3.69 gallon = $73.80
$73.80 divided by 700 mile range = 0.105 cents (cost per mile)
diesel = $4.55/gallon
Ford Fiesta (diesel) fuel Economy is 65mpg
65mpg times 20 gallons = 1,300 mile range
20 gallon fuel tank @ $4.55 gallon = $91
$91 divided by 1,300 mile range = 0.07 cents (cost per mile)
That's a (3 1/2) cents per mile saving. If you drive 20,000 miles a year that = $700 less per year you spend for fuel & we use less barrels of oil driving demand down more because less gasoline needs to be made (which takes a lot more refining then diesel does) if you use Bio-fuel in the lower & warmer states it cost even less & oil companies are not need as much.
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EE, I think your logic is a stretch, tho.
Forst off you're comparing at fleetwide (CAFE) goal (35mpg) to a sub-compact single model diesel (65mpg).
But even using that logic, there's the much more expensive diesel that must be amortised over the ownership life of the original vehicle owner. Folks keep cars longer today but even if the original owner kept it for 100,000 miles (likely greater than the national average), the additional $3,500 for the diesel takes that many miles to break even in your comparo (3.5 cents for 100,000 miles).
Further, you're comparing to ideals (65mpg subompact and 2012 CAFE) but folks don't buy cars based on that, imho. Here's another viewpoint: EcoBoost/TT will deliver a mileage *gain* of 20% and diesel typically 30% (broadly, not a specific model, based on process/cycle efficiencies), so if I go to buy a new car my personal business case boils down to if that extra 10% is worth the added cost of the diesel and, for the majority of buyers it would not appear to be so.
Admittedly the diesel will last much longer, but the benefit of that is not accrued by first owner and after 10 years and 100,000 miles the residual value difference is not likely to be a big factor.
At least that's how I'd be viewing it all other things being equal -- which they may not be ...both plusses and minusses I can see on both sides too.
I think we'll definately see diesels become more popular in the US but I think given short-term competing tech (like EB/TT) the case is a tough sell at present. Sure, there will be buyers who commute long distances and for whom the tradeoffs might be a bit better, but is there a sufficiently high-volume business case to support such investments given all the givens? Apparently Ford's analysis says not. :shrug:
Remember EcoBoost is a Ford-stated "short-term" strategy. Maybe diesel starts to make more market sense for 2012 and beyond given all the givens?